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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, though analysts believe PVV is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and established a multi-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a election period focused on topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with some facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of power. However, critics and analysts argue that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks could take months, analysts suggest that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.